future capitalism/socialism

As is typical for most science fiction fans, I like to try to figure out what the future holds. I am especially interested in those things that will probably impact me or my family so that keeps me to near-term predictions, which is great because they are easier to make anyway.

Since most political debate of late has focused on where on the Capitalist to Socialist continuum the country should reside, and since the economics of pay, social welfare, regulation, and taxation have been in the news a lot over the last year, my futurism thoughts have been largely employment-related. While the future trajectory of work could be different than I predict, I think my following predictions are the most likely scenario. My prediction is that American society is going to get more Capitalistic in the short term (for the next ten years, maybe), then it is going to get very Socialistic after that. I am biased to believing I am right, but it just feels inevitable to me.

I believe that the country is primed to become more capitalistic in the short term for a few reasons which I will list below.

1. A more capitalistic free market system is the way the political pendulum is swinging right now.
2. Probably most important, technology will enable people to freelance more and will allow companies to hire freelancers rather than maintaining a staff of people to do specific tasks. The internal functioning of most companies is actually more authoritarian than capitalistic, so a free market system that relies on freelancers is actually much more capitalistic
   
3. A lot of people in the United States long to be able to be their own boss without really thinking through the implications of that are.
4. It is possible that if any more tinkering is done with healthcare that someone might figure out how to decouple health insurance from people's place of employment. Believe it or not, this would lead to a more capitalistic employment system because there would be more incentive for people to try to freelance rather than hold down a steady job.

This period of increased Capitalism cannot last for long, though. At some point it will become dramatically more socialistic. A few of the reasons for this are below.

1. A lot of people will find that freelancing is great when the economy is great, but it is rough when no one is buying services. The first strong economic downturn will push former freelance capitalists toward the security of Socialism.
2. Capitalism relies on people acting in their own personal interests. No one cares when things are good, but it makes capitalist greed a popular scapegoat when things turn sour. This means that people tend to lean more socialist during bad economic times. This is a tendency that already exists, but it will be magnified by the other things I am mentioning.
   
3. Automated technology will eventually replace most jobs. If you have seen WALL-E, think about the automated world presented in that movie. In a world like that where every necessary function is performed by an automated system what possible service can a typical person provide to earn money to make a living? I do not know how long it will take, but eventually almost every job conceivable (even "creative" jobs, which are believed to be safer) will be performed by some computerized system. When a critical mass of job functions no longer exists for people to perform for payment, capitalistic society will either collapse or morph. Both of those options will eventually lead to Socialism, though the second would be far less painful.
   
4. Going with the WALL-E theme, if there is any type of society where Socialism works, it is in the society where no one can produce anything better than an existing automated system can produce it. Pure socialist societies today have serious incentive problems that a "WALL-E World" (my term) society simply would not have.
   
5. Most people are actually more socialistic than they think they are based on the services they believe government should provide. This means that they can palate some Socialism so long as it is not called "Socialism," and this will be how a socialist system can be established.
   

I should note that I do not think that there really is not any one system that is inherently more Godly than any other system. I think the most effective system does not go to either extreme, but effectiveness does not equate to Godliness, either. I do happen to believe that we will be cycling through a few different types in the coming years, so we will be finding out what the good and the bad implications of each system are firsthand.